Image Credit- ICC
There is just one semi-final position available due to
Australia’s incredible victory over Afghanistan, and three teams, each with
eight points from as many games, have a chance to win it. Here is a look at
each of those teams’ chances of qualifying.
Among the three teams, New Zealand has the best net
run rate (0.398), but their recent performance—four straight losses—is the
poorest. In Bengaluru, where they will play Sri Lanka on Thursday, they
suffered their most recent setback at the hands of Pakistan.
A victory will greatly increase their chances of
advancing to the semi-finals because to their higher run rate (NRR), since
Pakistan and Afghanistan will require huge margins of victory to surpass them.
But if New Zealand loses, their only chance to qualify is if Afghanistan and
Pakistan also lose and end up on eight, in which case they could qualify by
accident based on NRR. That also means that a team that has lost five of its
nine games will still be able to get to the World Cup semifinals.
In Bengaluru, a washout is also a possibility because
Thursday is expected to bring rain. Should that transpire, New Zealand would
conclude with nine points, and once more, their only chance of qualifying is in
the event that Pakistan and Afghanistan suffer defeats. (assuming their matches
aren’t washed out).
The NRR for Pakistan is the second-best of the three
teams. Pakistan will therefore be in a very strong position to qualify if they
win against England and New Zealand lose to Sri Lanka or if their match is
postponed.
But if New Zealand triumphs, Pakistan will not only
have to defeat England, but also by a comfortable margin. For example, Pakistan
would need to win by 130 to surpass their NRR even if New Zealand wins by just
one run after scoring 300 in a 50-over match.
Afghanistan has the lowest NRR of -0.338 out of the
three teams, therefore their best chance is to hope that neither Pakistan nor
New Zealand wins their last match. Any victory margin over South Africa will do
in that scenario. In order to surpass Pakistan’s net run rate, Afghanistan will
need to defeat South Africa by 140 runs if they lose their final game against
New Zealand and Pakistan defeats England by a run. However, if New Zealand wins
by a run in the entire 50-over match, Afghanistan will need to win by a margin
of 273 runs (based on 300 for the first innings). There have been two bigger
winning margins in this competition, so it will take a really optimistic person
to think Afghanistan can succeed to pull off a win so comprehensive against
South Africa.