Image Credit- ICC
Group 2 of the T20 World Cup 2024 Super Eight stage is essentially a three-way race for semi-final positions with two games remaining. Though they still have a chance, the USA will need to win big in order to stay in the race. Here are the qualification scenarios based on West Indies vs. South Africa and England vs. USA, the two remaining matches’ result combinations.
Three teams—England, West Indies, and South Africa—will have four points apiece if England and the West Indies win. If the West Indies defeat South Africa by any significant amount on Sunday night, they will have a greater net run rate overall due to their tremendous victory over the USA. If West Indies wins, they will undoubtedly qualify, independent of the outcome of England vs USA.
The total of the two results’ margins must be 10 runs for England to surpass South Africa’s NRR (assuming 160 for the first innings). This implies that even if South Africa loses in the Super Over, England will still lead on run rate if they win by ten runs. Should the result’s margin be less than 10, South Africa will stay ahead and qualify with four points.
South Africa will top the standings with six points if the USA and South Africa win, with the other three teams finishing with two points apiece. West Indies’ NRR will not fall below England’s if they lose in the Super Over chasing 160 by a margin of 43 runs or more. South Africa and the West Indies are the most likely semi-finalists in this scenario because West Indies will have more wiggle room if England loses by a greater margin.
Due to their low run rate, the USA will need two significant victories to have any chance of placing in the top two. Firstly, they must defeat England by at least 56 runs (assuming a total of 160 runs) in order to surpass them on NRR. Secondly, they must hope that the West Indies lose by at least 91 runs in order for their run rate to fall below the USA’s.
England and the USA will finish with two points if the USA and the West Indies win, while South Africa and the West Indies will qualify with four points each.
With six points and four points, respectively, South Africa and England advance to the semi-finals if they win.